Online

Adderly, Shawn

Mathematics and Statistics

2016

MS

As our electric power distribution infrastructure has aged, considerable investment has been applied to modernizing the electrical power grid through weatherization and in deployment of real-time monitoring systems. A key question is whether or not these investments are reducing the number and duration of power outages, leading to improved reliability. Statistical methods are applied to analyze electrical disturbance data (from the Department of Energy, DOE) and reliability index data (from state utility public service commission regulators) to detect signs of improvement. The number of installed smart meters provided by several utilities is used to determine whether the number of smart meters correlate with a reduction in outage frequency. Indication emerged that the number of power outages may be decreasing over time. The magnitude of power loss has decreased from 2003 to 2007, and behaves cyclically from 2008 to 2014, with a few outlier points in both groups. The duration also appears to be decreasing between 2003-2014. Large blackout events exceeding 5 GW continue to be rare, and certain power outage events are seasonally dependent. There was a linear relationship between the number of customers and the magnitude of a power outage event. However, no relationship was found between the magnitude of power outages and time to restore power. The frequency of outages maybe decreasing as the number of installed smart meters has increased. Recommendations for inclusion of additional metrics, changes to formatting and semantics of datasets currently provided by federal and state regulators are made to help aid researchers in performing more effective analysis. Confounding variables and lack of information that has made the analysis difficult is also discussed.