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Cole, Wendy Sicard

Natural Resources

2014

MS

The bobcat is a Species of Greatest Concern in Vermont and susceptible to landscape change. Bobcats require distinct habitats, but little information exists on how changes in the amount and distribution of those habitats, especially due to human developments, affect the population. I examined the effect of habitat conversion on the Vermont bobcat population. My objective was to estimate the carrying capacity of bobcats in present conditions and in a scenario of future development. I constructed habitat suitability models based on bobcat home range requirements, as well as a model of predicted landscape change in Vermont based on housing density growth patterns and projections of future road density. I calculated bobcat carrying capacity for both landscapes using R programming language that mimics multiple trials of a maximum clique analysis and interpreted the results with respect to effective population size.
Results indicated that predicted development will not significantly change the carrying capacity of bobcats in the state, with an increase of 1%, from 1339 (848 females, 491 males) in 2000 to 1356 (909 females, 447 males) in 2050. Conversely, the effective population size declined from 1244 (92% of 2000 population) to 1199 (88% of 2050 population). The discrepancy in population estimates suggests that the strongly female-biased Vermont bobcat population has smaller future genetic potential than implied by the carrying capacity. This analysis provides a quantitative estimate of how projected changes in development levels affect bobcat carrying capacity. Estimates will allow managers to better plan for bobcat conservation in the future.