UVM Theses and Dissertations
Format:
Print
Author:
Dowds, Jonathan R.
Dept./Program:
Natural Resources
Year:
2010
Degree:
MS
Abstract:
Climate change is occurring and is exerting profound pressures on our social, economic and environmental systems. Minimizing the impacts from continued climate change will require large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and significant changes in many facets of the global economy. The transportation and power generation sectors will be particularly impacted by these changes as, combined, they account for over of 60% oftotal U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Vehicle electrification is one mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emission in the transportation sector while cap-and-trade systems can be used to reduce emissions from power generation. In the short term, the electricity sector's response to emissions constraints is largely limited to altering the order in which existing plants are dispatched, thereby switching generation from high to low greenhouse gas intensity technologies. In the longer term, newer, cleaner, power plants can be added to the generating mix and higher greenhouse gas intensity plants retired.
This study models both the short and mid-term impacts of a cap-and-trade system for the electricity sector, taking into account the additional electricity demand that may be required for vehicle charging. The results indicate that adoption of electric vehicles could have significant implications for carbon prices in the short term when the electricity sector is constrained by existing generating technology. Specifically, the short term model results indicate that, under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative cap-and-trade system, charging demand from 5% plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PREV) fleet penetration would increase CO₂ allowance prices from $3.40/ton to $8.40/ton. For a given number of PREVs, the impacts on allowance prices and marginal fuel costs are minimized by delayed nighttime charging.
In the mid-term, by 2020, expansion of wind and natural gas capacity in New England would enable a 50% reduction in electricity sector carbon emissions while still meeting probable levels of plug-in hybrid vehicle charging demand. This level of emission reductions, however, would result in CO₂ allowance prices of greater than $l00/ton and approximately double the average marginal cost of electricity generation.
Vehicle electrification is one mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emission in the transportation sector while cap-and-trade systems can be used to reduce emissions from power generation. In the short term, the electricity sector's response to emissions constraints is largely limited to altering the order in which existing plants are dispatched, thereby switching generation from high to low greenhouse gas intensity technologies. In the longer term, newer, cleaner, power plants can be added to the generating mix and higher greenhouse gas intensity plants retired.
This study models both the short and mid-term impacts of a cap-and-trade system for the electricity sector, taking into account the additional electricity demand that may be required for vehicle charging. The results indicate that adoption of electric vehicles could have significant implications for carbon prices in the short term when the electricity sector is constrained by existing generating technology. Specifically, the short term model results indicate that, under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative cap-and-trade system, charging demand from 5% plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PREV) fleet penetration would increase CO₂ allowance prices from $3.40/ton to $8.40/ton. For a given number of PREVs, the impacts on allowance prices and marginal fuel costs are minimized by delayed nighttime charging.
In the mid-term, by 2020, expansion of wind and natural gas capacity in New England would enable a 50% reduction in electricity sector carbon emissions while still meeting probable levels of plug-in hybrid vehicle charging demand. This level of emission reductions, however, would result in CO₂ allowance prices of greater than $l00/ton and approximately double the average marginal cost of electricity generation.