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UVM Theses and Dissertations

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Format:
Print
Author:
Voigt, Brian G.
Dept./Program:
Natural Resources
Year:
2010
Degree:
PhD
Abstract:
Patterns of urban development in the United States have been increasingly decentralized since at least the 1940s. In the process, large areas of previously undeveloped lands are being converted to urban uses with socio-economic and environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. Land use modeling has emerged as a relevant tool for exploring the diverse drivers of urbanization, evolving from aspatial mathematical specifications of linear relationships to spatially explicit dynamic simulations that allow feedbacks between model subsystems while accounting for a divergent set of institutional and ecological forcings. Advances in computer hardware and software, increased digital data availability, and an improved understanding of natural and social system functions have enabled increasing sophistication of modeling applications. Finally, land use models are an effective way to facilitate stakeholder involvement in land use planning. This dissertation presents the development and implementation of land use models for two distinct urban systems: Chittenden County, VT and Baltimore, MD.
The Chittenden County research is focused on the implementation of the land use model UrbanSim. A brief summary of data collection and model estimation will be discussed, followed by a presentation of model results under alternative land use (e.g. growth centers), infrastructure (e.g. completion of the Circ highway) and demographic scenarios. Model outputs were evaluated against those generated from baseline conditions to quantify expected future land use and transportation outcomes resulting from alternative land use policy and infrastructure investment scenarios.
The Baltimore, MD research details the development of a coupled natural human systems model for Watershed 263 using the simulation modeling software Simile. The model design and function are intended to facilitate learning about the watershed's biophysical and socio-economic systems through the exploration of the relationships and interdependencies among system components. Modeling alternative scenarios will help to define the range of potential ecosystem trajectories resulting from efforts to increase urban tree canopy cover. This tool is guided by previous land use modeling efforts, with a primary objective of quantifying the effect(s) of landscape interventions on urban fonn and function and residential quality of life.