UVM Theses and Dissertations
Format:
Print
Author:
Sears, Zachary
Dept./Program:
Community Development and Applied Economics
Year:
2007
Degree:
MS
Abstract:
This thesis presents an empirical study on the impacts of U.S. antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CV) tariffs on U.S. import of honey from Argentina. As a large honey producer, Argentina emerged as a major player in the world honey market in the early 1990s and exported substantial amounts of honey to the United States. While the increase in honey imports significantly reduced the price of honey in the U.S. market, U.S. honey producers requested protection from the government. They complained that honey from Argentina was being sold in the U.S. market at an unfair price and that producers in Argentina were receiving illegal subsidies from their own government. In response to the complaint, the U.S. government levied AD and CV tariffs on all honey from Argentina in 2001.
In order to assess the impacts the U.S. AD and CV tariffs on Argentina honey, this thesis has developed a model of import demand. The linear regression model has been estimated using ordinary least squares with monthly data from September 1995 to February 2006. While the model is not able to make reliable forecasts, it explains the sample well and offers a good measure of the impact of the tariffs. The estimation results indicate that the presence of the AD and CV tariffs severely reduced honey imports from Argentina by an average of $6.5 million per month (in March 1997 dollars).
This result suggests that elimination or a significant reduction of the tariffs would result in more honey imports from Argentina to the US and translate into substantial benefits for honey producers in Argentina. The issue is especially relevant at the present time because the U.S. government is reviewing the AD and CV interventions in accordance with WTO agreements. The U.S. lnternational Trade Administration will assess whether or not the tariffs are still needed to protect the domestic honey industry and a decision is expected by the end of 2007. The import demand model and empirical estimation results can be used to assess the impacts of any change in the U.S. AD and CV tariffs on honey from Argentina.
In order to assess the impacts the U.S. AD and CV tariffs on Argentina honey, this thesis has developed a model of import demand. The linear regression model has been estimated using ordinary least squares with monthly data from September 1995 to February 2006. While the model is not able to make reliable forecasts, it explains the sample well and offers a good measure of the impact of the tariffs. The estimation results indicate that the presence of the AD and CV tariffs severely reduced honey imports from Argentina by an average of $6.5 million per month (in March 1997 dollars).
This result suggests that elimination or a significant reduction of the tariffs would result in more honey imports from Argentina to the US and translate into substantial benefits for honey producers in Argentina. The issue is especially relevant at the present time because the U.S. government is reviewing the AD and CV interventions in accordance with WTO agreements. The U.S. lnternational Trade Administration will assess whether or not the tariffs are still needed to protect the domestic honey industry and a decision is expected by the end of 2007. The import demand model and empirical estimation results can be used to assess the impacts of any change in the U.S. AD and CV tariffs on honey from Argentina.