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Michaud, Molly

Natural Resource Planning Program

2005

M.S.

This research looks at the predictors of land conservation in the Baltimore metropolitan area. The conservation of open space and natural areas has been shown to have a direct benefit to communities. While urban growth has consumed considerable amounts of open space, there is a tremendous variation in the amount of conserved land across neighborhoods. The objective of this study was to examine the factors that are significantly associated with this variation using data from over 1,800 neighborhoods in the five county area around the City of Baltimore. The amount of conserved land and forest area was summarized at the block group level, then Claritas PRIZMTM cluster data, median housing age, median home value, and other socioeconomic characteristics were used to predict differences in the amount of conserved land. An additional objective was to predict these relationships over time. Using regression analysis with multi-model inference, the empirical results suggest that variation in the abundance of conserved land is predicted by previous loss of green space, median housing age, home value, and lifestyle factors, as measured through Claritas' PRIZM clusters. The findings also show that a loss of forest land over time is associated with an increase in socioeconomic status during that same period. Finally, chi-squared analysis indicates that neighborhood clusters based on the level of green space amenities have a non-random relationship with neighborhood clusters based on socio-economic variables. The findings suggest that newer, faster growing, and wealthier developments with little preexisting housing stock, often characterized as suburban sprawl, are associated with less conserved land, while more established communities fight new growth through conservation efforts. This study also provides evidence that wealthy, high amenity communities attract new residents who fuel the ensuing loss of green space.